By Sam Boughedda
A Jefferies equity analyst told investors in a note on Monday that they believe Biogen (NASDAQ:) could become a strategic asset.
In a note focused on the Phase III CLARITY-AD readout, he stated that they think there is “a ~35% chance of hitting a p-value for success vs consensus ~25% based on our stats analysis suggesting the powering implies it can hit even if CDR-SB was lower than 0.4 pt delta (what Aduhelm showed).”
“If positive and meaningful delta we see stock $275; if neg we see stock $165-175,” the analyst added.
However, the analyst, who has a Buy rating and a $300 price target on Biogen, acknowledged that the market remains uncertain about Biogen regardless of the results, but there is “strategic value” in a downside scenario.
“We think BIIB could become a strategic asset with a 4-5x peak sales multiple / ~$7B base biz over the decade (which gets the stock back to $200-250); And we note similar companies such as CELG, AGN, ALXN have been acquired at similar multiples,” declared the analyst.